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Sam Altman: One of the Few Arbitrage Opportunities Left in the Market Is Time

By Sam Altman · Strategy · 1 min read

We've gotten really good at high-frequency trading. We've gotten really good at the price of things. We've gotten worse at long-term value. The one way I beat the market is by making a long-term commitment.

Key Points

The few remaining arbitrage opportunities are in long-term commitment — the market is too short-term focused
His new belief: hold stock in the best companies forever
The best companies create massive value over a long period — they capture far less than they create

One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies: forever.

The Time Arbitrage

Altman: One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time. We've gotten really good at high-frequency trading. We've gotten really good at the price of things. And we've gotten worse at the long-term value.

I don't think you can go beat the market in a lot of ways. But the one way I do is by making a long-term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies I invest in is forever.

We've gotten worse at long-term value. The one way I beat the market: long-term commitment.

Go in the Other Direction

Altman: In a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earning cycle — you should try and go in the other direction. This is a great way to generate value and wealth.

When you're thinking about a startup, it's really worthwhile to think about something you're willing to make a very long-term commitment to. Because that is where the current void in the market is.

Everyone focuses on the quarterly cycle. Go in the other direction. That's where the void is.

Far More Money Over the Long Horizon

Altman: You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people. The best companies create massive amounts of value for the world and capture some of it — but far less than they create. And they do it over a very long period of time.

You will make far more money over the long horizon by doing this company really well than a bunch of short-term things along the way.

You will make far more money doing one company really well than a bunch of short-term things.