You Can't Invent Something No One Else Would
Brockman: We're coming onto this insanely transformational technology of general intelligence. There's a question — how can you take actions that will steer it to go better rather than worse?
As a scientist, as an inventor — what impact can you really have? The telephone was invented by two people on the same day. What does that mean about the shape of innovation? Everyone is building on the shoulders of the same giants. You can't hope to create something no one else ever would. If Einstein wasn't born, someone else would have come up with relativity. Maybe it would have taken another 20 years — but humanity would discover these fundamental truths.
The telephone was invented by two people on the same day. You can't create something no one else would.
Set the Initial Conditions
Brockman: Think about Moore's Law — an entire industry set its clock to it for 50 years. How is that possible? And yet it happened.
You can't hope to ever invent something no one else will. Maybe you can change the timeline a little. But if you really want to make a difference, the only real degree of freedom you have is to set the initial conditions under which a technology is born.
The only real degree of freedom you have is to set the initial conditions under which a technology is born.
The Internet Example
Brockman: Think about the internet. There were lots of competitors trying to build similar things. The internet won — and its initial conditions were that it was created by a group that really valued anyone being able to plug in. This very academic mindset of being open and connected.
The internet for the next 40 years really played out that way. Those initial conditions were really important to determine 40 years' worth of progress.
The internet's initial conditions — open, academic, anyone can plug in — determined 40 years of progress.