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Marc Andreessen: You're Almost Certainly Too Early, Not Too Late

By Marc Andreessen · Startup Growth · 1 min read

The iPad existed 20 years before the iPad. It was called the Newton. The world wasn't ready.

Key Points

Great founders almost always feel too late. They're almost always too early.
The Newton was the iPad 20 years before the iPad. The world just wasn't ready.
If something was hot in the press 3-4 years ago, now is probably the right time.

We almost never see a qualified founder fail because they're too late. It's almost always because they're too early.

The Permanent Curse of Entrepreneurs

Marc Andreessen says great founders always feel like they're too late. The idea is obvious to them. The world should already work this way. Surely 80 other people are doing the same thing.

The data says the opposite. Founders almost never fail because they're too late. They fail because they're too early.

The great founders almost always feel like they're too late. You're almost always too early.

The Newton Was the iPad. 20 Years Too Soon.

In 1989, Apple released the Newton. It was the iPad. Same concept. Same vision. The world just wasn't ready.

No mobile broadband. No high-res screens. No battery technology. The Newton crashed and burned. Convinced everyone for two decades that tablets would never work.

The Newton = the iPad in 1989. It convinced people tablets were dead.

The Hot Press Test

Andreessen has a rule of thumb. If what you're building was getting breathless press coverage three to four years ago, you're probably right on time.

The infrastructure caught up. Consumer behavior shifted. The hype died. Now the real builders can get to work.

Hot in the press 4 years ago? Now is probably the right time.