The Fog of War
Andreessen: Entrepreneurship is what economists call decision-making under uncertainty. The world is a complex adaptive system with feedback loops. Military commanders call this the fog of war. The number of variables are just off the charts.
The really good innovators have a drive to cope with that. They do it in two steps.
The world is a complex adaptive system. Military commanders call it the fog of war.
The Idea Maze
Andreessen: First, they pre-plan as much as they possibly can. We call that navigating the idea maze. They've got a general idea — the internet's going to work, or search — and in their head they've thought through: if I do it this way, here's what happens, then I have to do this, here's the technical challenge.
They've got as complete a map of possible futures as they could possibly have.
In their heads they have as complete a map of possible futures as they could possibly have.
Course-Correct Every Day
Andreessen: Then they start on day one. Now they're in the fog of war. The great ones course-correct every single day. They take stock of what they've learned. They modify the plan.
They think in terms of hypotheses. They say — this is my plan, I have complete certainty — but they know they need to test. If it doesn't work, they go back and say actually we're going right, not left. They run that loop thousands of times.
The businesses that end up working really well tend to be different than the original plan. But that's part of the process of a really smart founder working their way through reality.
The great ones course-correct every single day. The business that works is often different than the original plan.