Scale: We Can Knock Them Out in 12 Months
Hastings: A company can get started two or three years before us in Germany and we can knock them out in 12 months because we have great scale. But it's not a network effect.
If you're in a network effect business, then first is forever — because the barriers are really strong. But if you're just in a scale business — Amazon, how quickly did they wipe out CDNow? Like 1999, really quickly. It didn't matter that CDNow had started earlier.
We can knock them out in 12 months. That's scale. But it's not a network effect.
Network Effects: First Is Forever
Hastings: When eBay tried to knock out Yahoo Japan, they didn't succeed. And that's been permanent. If you're in a network effect business, first is forever because the barriers are really strong.
There are scale economies — they're just not as strong as a barrier. So you can think of a barrier as how much pricing power do you have. If you've got a ton of pricing power, you can raise prices a lot and it's still very hard to come after you.
eBay tried to knock out Yahoo Japan. Failed. Permanently. Network effect barriers are that strong.