Longevity Is Extremely Solvable
Musk: I've long thought that longevity or semi-immortality is an extremely solvable problem. I don't think it's a particularly hard problem.
When you consider the fact that your body is extremely synchronized in its age — the clock must be incredibly obvious. Nobody has an old left arm and a young right arm. Why is that? What's keeping them all in sync?
You're programmed to die. If you change the program, you will live longer. In retrospect, the solution to longevity will seem extremely obvious.
Nobody has an old left arm and a young right arm. You're programmed to die. Change the program.
Robot Surgeons in 3 Years
Musk: It takes a super long time to learn to be a good doctor. The knowledge is constantly evolving. Doctors have limited time. They make mistakes. How many great surgeons are there? Not that many.
When will Optimus be a better surgeon than the best surgeons? Three years. At scale. There will probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are all surgeons on Earth.
We've seen some advanced cases of automation — like LASIK. The robot just lasers your eyeball. Do you want an ophthalmologist with a hand laser? No.
Three years. At scale. More Optimus robot surgeons than all surgeons on Earth.
The Triple Exponential
Musk: Here's the thing to understand about humanoid robots. You have three exponentials multiplied by each other. An exponential increase in AI software capability. An exponential increase in AI chip capability. And an exponential increase in electromechanical dexterity.
The usefulness of the humanoid robot is those three things multiplied by each other. Then you have the recursive effect of Optimus building Optimus.
Three exponentials multiplied by each other. Then the recursive effect of Optimus building Optimus.
Don't Save for Retirement
Musk: One side recommendation — don't worry about squirreling money away for retirement in 10 or 20 years. It won't matter.
If any of the things we've said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant. The services will be there to support you. You'll have the home, the healthcare, the entertainment.
Productivity is going to improve dramatically. I think we may see high double-digit output of goods and services.
Don't worry about saving for retirement. If any of these things are true, it will be irrelevant.
Intelligence Density
Musk: I'll tell you something that most people in the AI community don't yet understand. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we're currently experiencing. We're off by orders of magnitude in terms of intelligence density per gigabyte.
Two orders of magnitude — just from algorithmic improvement. Same computer. And the computers are getting better and bigger. That's why it's a 10x improvement per year type thing. By 2030, AI exceeds the intelligence of all humans combined.
We're off by orders of magnitude. 10x improvement per year. By 2030, AI exceeds all humans combined.